How Tikata makes a pick.
Tikata’s picks come from its own model and are compared with captured sportsbook lines. The public record preserves the selection’s original terms and distinguishes picks recorded before kickoff from retrospective grading. A published pick is not proof that the model’s evidence gate has passed.
Model and market are separate inputs
A model forecast is not a sportsbook quote. Tikata matches the player, event and market before comparing the forecast with a captured line. A sportsbook price keeps its own observation time.
The published NFL methodology covers passing and receiving yards. Coverage and publication rules can differ by sport; an empty board is not permission to invent a pick. Check the current board for what is actually available.
When a pick locks
A pick locks on its slot’s clock, and the whole slot locks together rather than game by game. Thursday games lock at 12:00 PM ET / 9:00 AM PT on the Thursday. Sunday games lock as one card at 10:00 AM ET / 7:00 AM PT on the Sunday, early, late and Sunday night together. Monday games lock at 12:00 PM ET / 9:00 AM PT on the Monday. A game on any other day locks at 10:00 AM ET / 7:00 AM PT when kickoff is before 2:00 PM ET / 11:00 AM PT, and at 12:00 PM ET / 9:00 AM PT otherwise.
One rule overrides all of those: a pick never locks later than two hours before its own kickoff. Without it a Sunday morning international kickoff would lock after the game had started.
The times are fixed in Eastern Time, and Pacific follows it three hours behind because both observe daylight saving, so the pairs above hold all season. The equivalent UTC time is what shifts when the clocks change. This clock is when the picks lane locks and publishes. It is not the model input freeze, which is a separate and earlier cutoff.
Original terms make a receipt useful
A receipt identifies the selection and the terms recorded when it was published. A later market observation does not replace that line. Results are graded against the recorded terms, with pending and void outcomes distinguished from wins and losses.
What a receipt shows, and what a fingerprint does not
A pick receipt lists recorded clocks under Source trace: when the pick was published, the market observation behind its line, and the latest market observation where one exists. It carries exactly two fingerprints, one for the recorded market capture and one for the recorded forecast. Change notes lists corrections to the graded fields only, meaning status, result, actual and graded-at, oldest first and including any later changed back. Other amendments are not listed there, and a line moving is not a correction at all.
A fingerprint identifies one exact recorded file. It is an integrity reference Tikata can check against its own retained source. It is not a public source, not independent proof of when something was published, and not a check that a forecast was right. The source files are not published here and the published reasons are not mapped to individual files, so there is no verification a reader can run independently. Treat it as a record of what was used, not as evidence you can confirm yourself.
The record and the evidence gate
The running record is shown as counts. Retrospective results are labelled separately from picks recorded before kickoff. The model’s evidence gate continues measuring its own declared requirements; it no longer prevents publication.
NHL paper picks are a separate case. They are shown, with their locks, grades and evidence, and they are labelled as a paper record in the headings and counts rather than only in passing. They are not part of the model record and are never added into it. Shown is not the same as counted.
This page deliberately carries no changing totals. Consult the running record in the product for the available results and limitations. Counts alone do not establish profit or promise future performance.
Where this explanation stops
Captured prices are observations, not guaranteed executable offers. Tikata takes no bets and holds no betting funds. Private beta features and synthetic walkthroughs are separate from these public guides.
Neither these pages nor the example measurement record establish a complete live closing-line dataset, independent certification, or predictive readiness.